Southeast Asian foreign ministers opened three days of talks in Manila on Tuesday, with the war between the United States and Iran casting a long shadow over the annual gathering. The conflict has raised concerns that Washington's military preoccupation with the Middle East could diminish its focus on Asia-Pacific security challenges, including China's assertive actions in the South China Sea[reference:0][reference:1].
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in the Philippine capital to renew Washington's assurances of its commitment to the region. "The secretary's visit advances a clear U.S. priority: a free and open Indo-Pacific that delivers safety, security and prosperity for the region and for the American people," State Department spokesperson Thomas Pigott said[reference:2]. Rubio is expected to meet with other members of the Quad bloc—India, Japan and Australia—on the sidelines of the ASEAN meetings, a grouping widely seen as a cornerstone of the American strategy to counter China's growing influence[reference:3].
The US-Iran war has dominated discussions, with ASEAN foreign ministers expressing alarm over renewed hostilities in the Middle East that have already spilled into other countries[reference:4]. Washington's diversion of military firepower to the region has sparked concerns over its ability to maintain a robust presence in the Asia-Pacific, particularly as tensions between China and the Philippines continue to escalate in the South China Sea[reference:5].
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is also attending the meetings, and Rubio has indicated he would be open to a bilateral encounter. "When you have two big, powerful countries like the United States and China, there are always going to be irritants, there are always be things we don't agree on," Rubio said before departing Washington. "But I think it's incumbent on powerful, important countries like ours to continue to talk and have a relationship — we owe it to each other and to our people and to the world"[reference:6].
Beyond external conflicts, the ASEAN ministers face pressure to address regional crises, primarily the civil war in Myanmar and the territorial disputes in the South China Sea[reference:7]. Since Myanmar's military seized power in 2021, more than 8,100 people have been killed and nearly 22,500 remain in detention, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners[reference:8]. A five-point peace plan issued by ASEAN leaders in 2021 has failed to end the violence[reference:9]. In a bid to break the impasse, ASEAN foreign ministers met their Myanmar counterpart for the first time in five years this month in Bangkok, renewing calls for dialogue among all warring groups[reference:10].
The ASEAN foreign ministers will also meet with Wang Yi to discuss the status of negotiations on a proposed "code of conduct" aimed at preventing South China Sea disputes from spiraling out of control[reference:11]. The territorial standoffs involve China, Taiwan and ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, but confrontations have particularly spiked between Chinese and Philippine coast guard and naval forces in recent years[reference:12].
Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro, who is hosting the meetings and serving as ASEAN's special envoy on Myanmar, has defended the bloc's recent engagement with the country's military-backed government. "The path to peace can only be obtained through resolute diplomacy with all parties to the conflict," she said[reference:13]. The talks are set to continue through Thursday, with the ASEAN Regional Forum expected to bring together the European Union, Russia and other key partners[reference:14].
