President Donald Trump has presented record employment, repeated stock-market highs, stronger manufacturing and rising exports as proof of a broad US economic boom. The underlying figures confirm several milestones, but they also reveal slower hiring, uneven industrial performance and persistent public concern over living costs ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
Nearly 159 million nonfarm jobs were recorded in June, the highest total in US history. Yet a growing population normally pushes payroll totals upward over time, and the pace of job creation has weakened: employers added an average of 9,700 positions a month in 2025 and 92,000 a month so far in 2026.
Hiring during the final two years of the Biden administration averaged 166,000 jobs a month, even after excluding the exceptional post-pandemic rebound of 2021 and 2022. High interest rates, stricter immigration enforcement and the retirement of Baby Boomers are among the forces constraining current employment growth.
Equity markets have also set genuine records. The S&P 500 reached 64 new highs after Trump began his second term in January 2025 and 74 after the 2024 election. Strong corporate earnings, expectations around artificial-intelligence investment and changing oil prices have supported the rally, while the war with Iran and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz have generated volatility.
US manufacturing activity has expanded for seven consecutive months and in July reached its strongest level since May 2022, reversing a prolonged slump. The improvement is visible in output and orders, but it has not yet produced the large-scale relocation of production and employment that the administration associates with its tariff policy.
The country had 95,000 fewer factory jobs in June than when Trump's second term began, and manufacturers added only 18,000 positions during the first six months of 2026. Automation reduces the labor required for additional production, while tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and other inputs can raise costs for domestic factories. Economist Sal Guatieri linked much of the recent industrial improvement to the investment cycle surrounding artificial intelligence.
Goods exports reached a seasonally adjusted monthly record of $221.8 billion in April before easing to $206.9 billion in June. First-half exports totaled about $1.25 trillion, above the $1.09 trillion recorded in the same period of 2025 and consistent with a $2.5 trillion annual pace if the trend holds, although June imports remained far higher at nearly $388 billion.
The administration's investment claims are less firmly supported. Trump cited $18 trillion in May, while the White House listed $10.7 trillion, including commitments that originated before his second term. Total US private investment was running at a $5.7 trillion annual pace between April and July, and foreign direct investment increased by $266 billion in 2025. The contrast between real records and weaker underlying measures explains why 69% of adults described the economy as poor and only 32% approved of Trump's economic management in a late-July poll.
