Spain's intelligence service warned Moroccan counterparts and Spanish officials one day before more than 70,000 migrants entered Ceuta on July 30, declassified government records show. The disclosures sharpen questions about what authorities knew, how they assessed the threat and whether enough preventive measures were prepared.
In a July 29 message, the National Intelligence Centre alerted Morocco's DGST and DGED agencies to plans circulating on social media for large groups to scale the border fence or swim around it. The organizers sought to exploit Morocco's annual Throne Day celebrations, when normal security arrangements could be under greater pressure.
The CNI also warned the Spanish government's representative in Ceuta that same day through messages later released by Madrid. It identified two online groups with a combined 180,000 followers, a figure intended to convey the potential mobilization capacity even though it did not predict the exact number who would cross.
Six weeks after the surge, local authorities said more than 10,000 migrants, including unaccompanied minors, remained in the enclave in improvised camps or on streets and beaches. Nongovernmental organizations estimated that about 140 people died, while residents held near-daily protests over the government's management of the aftermath.
Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares argued that the records did not warn of the eventual scale and said he had received no information indicating an influx of that magnitude. His distinction between knowledge of planned attempts and knowledge of their numerical size has become central to the political dispute over responsibility.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said Spain found no evidence that Moroccan authorities orchestrated the crossing, rejecting allegations contained in a Spanish police report. The Interior Ministry nevertheless described Moroccan border police as passive on July 30, despite an expected reinforcement of 1,000 police officers and soldiers during the public holiday.
A CNI note from the day of the crossing said no proactive Moroccan response was observed beyond the deployment of several riot-control units. It recorded that many people were already waiting to enter the water on the night of July 29 and that several hundred crossed by swimming after security forces proved unable to control the crowd.
Madrid published 40 intelligence reports, alerts and communications covering the July crisis after Sanchez promised disclosure. The files show arrivals had accelerated from July 25, when roughly 1,700 people reached Ceuta by sea, and a Defense Ministry presentation warned that further intrusions were imminent, ensuring continued scrutiny of operational decisions before the mass crossing.
