Half of Brazilian voters believe other countries could interfere in the 2026 national election, while 43% reject that possibility and 8% are unsure or did not answer. The finding places external influence inside the campaign debate after the formal registration of presidential candidates.
Among all respondents, 32% both perceive a chance of interference and consider it a problem. Another 18% see intervention as possible but do not regard it as harmful, showing that concern about foreign involvement is not uniform even among those who believe it could occur.
Political preference strongly shapes the result. Among voters for President Lula, 36% see a problematic risk of intervention and 9% see possible interference without concern. Among supporters of Flávio Bolsonaro, the respective figures are 24% and 32%.
The survey interviewed 2,058 people in person from August 18 to 20 at high-traffic locations. It has a maximum margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level, and is the first poll of its kind since the official campaign began.
The question was asked against a backdrop of statements and measures by foreign leaders. Donald Trump's government imposed additional tariffs on Brazilian goods, renewed discussion of sanctions against Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and faced a Brazilian refusal of visas for two State Department officials.
Lula later told Trump that the tariff measures rested on unfounded claims involving Pix, ethanol and imports connected to forced labor. The dispute has fused trade policy, diplomatic retaliation and electoral integrity into the same political conversation.
Argentina's President Javier Milei has also criticized Lula and Brazilian judicial officials and attended the party convention that confirmed Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy. The poll captures how these external interventions are being interpreted differently by the two principal electoral coalitions.
