Southeast Asia is preparing for a potentially exceptional El Niño that could intensify heat and drought across the region through 2026-27. The term super El Niño is not an official scientific category, but specialists use it to describe an unusually strong rise in central and eastern equatorial Pacific temperatures. The event is unfolding on a planet already about 1.4 to 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer.
World Meteorological Organization modelling indicates that sea-surface temperatures in a key Pacific zone could average around 2 degrees above normal from July through September, before El Niño typically peaks between November and February. Some simulations suggest regional conditions could surpass the 1997-98 episode, which drove severe drought, Indonesian forest and peat fires, transboundary haze and billions of dollars in losses.
Thailand is particularly exposed through rice and sugarcane production, reservoirs, electricity demand and heat. Drought risks extend through the Mekong basin to Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar, affecting crops, fisheries, hydropower and livelihoods. Experts also warn that when wetter conditions return after the peak, delayed monsoons could produce concentrated rain bombs and even very rare flood events.
The threat is regional. Indonesia and Malaysia face agricultural losses, fires and haze; the Philippines could see pressure on farms, water and hydropower; Singapore remains vulnerable to extreme heat, imported food inflation and cross-border smoke. Rice and palm-oil losses could raise household costs, while earlier strong El Niño episodes suggest inflation could increase by nearly two percentage points in Indonesia and the Philippines.
Governments have begun preparations. Indonesia distributed about 100,000 water pumps, rehabilitated roughly 900,000 hectares of irrigation, introduced drought-resistant seeds and mobilized a task force against fires covering about 107,000 hectares. The Philippines is expanding irrigation and developing a national framework for farming, fisheries, water and food security. Thailand ordered agencies to plan water allocations, crops and emergency reserves.
Farmers and specialists nevertheless question implementation. Thai advisers recommend suspending off-season rice in favour of soybeans, mung beans and other low-water crops, excavating farm ponds and expanding crop insurance. They argue that research, agricultural applications and climate-policy planning have not yet produced coherent support on the ground, leaving indebted farmers uncertain about planting and income.
Cross-border monitoring has improved. The Mekong River Commission now uses near-real-time data from about 80 stations, year-round information from China's Jinghong station and operating data from 13 major hydropower dams. Vietnam is planning for drought, shortages and saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta, while Cambodian authorities are pumping river and canal water toward rice fields in Pursat.
The climate shock will collide with poverty, high food prices, fragile supply chains and constrained humanitarian funding. CARE estimates that 172.3 million women and girls are already at risk of food insecurity in the countries expected to be hardest hit, and the World Food Programme says El Niño could push up to 49 million additional people into acute hunger by the end of next year. Urban authorities also face pressure to protect outdoor workers, add green space and improve drainage and heat safeguards.
