Pete Hegseth arrives at the ASEAN defence meetings in Cebu facing questions about whether the United States can sustain its Indo-Pacific role while fighting a demanding war in the Middle East. Allies want evidence of readiness, not only renewed assurances.
The conflict with Iran has consumed munitions, ships, air defences and political attention since February. It has also disrupted shipping and energy markets, making distant war a direct economic and security concern for Southeast Asian governments.
The Philippines is the sharpest test because it is a US treaty ally confronting China in the South China Sea. Manila wants clarity about operational support, while repeated maritime encounters and Chinese sanctions have raised the cost of miscalculation.
China will attend through its defence attaché rather than a minister. Beijing's presence preserves a communication channel, but the lower level also reflects strained relations with the Philippine host and limits the possibility of senior bilateral engagement.
Regional militaries are closely watching Chinese naval activity. The Liaoning carrier group was monitored as it moved near the southern Philippines toward the Celebes Sea, demonstrating how exercises and deployments can shape the atmosphere around diplomatic meetings.
Hegseth is also due to meet counterparts from Japan, Australia and the Philippines in a four-country format. Their cooperation is becoming more operational, but ASEAN members remain cautious about arrangements that could divide the region into rival security camps.
The meeting can still deliver practical work on coast guards, maritime awareness, cyber security, counterterrorism and energy resilience. Yet the long-delayed South China Sea code of conduct shows the limits of forums that avoid the hardest strategic disputes.
The summit's real test is consistency after the communiqués. Southeast Asian states want a US presence strong enough to deter coercion but predictable enough to avoid escalation, while preserving ASEAN's ability to work with China without choosing sides.
