Brazilian Navy Commander Admiral Marcos Sampaio Olsen has dismissed the possibility of a United States invasion of Brazilian territory, stating that military-to-military relations between the two countries remain robust despite recent diplomatic tensions.
In an exclusive interview with CNN Brasil, Olsen was asked about the geopolitical impact of the U.S. designation of the Red Command and the PCC as terrorist organizations, as well as the potential for a military threat against Brazil. "No, I do not believe in that possibility," he said categorically.
Olsen emphasized that in terms of military relations, the diplomatic friction between Brasília and Washington has shown no impact whatsoever. He noted that the Brazilian and U.S. navies have maintained a regular agenda for decades, including exchanges, combined operational exercises, and a close doctrinal alignment in the use of force. The commander also mentioned his recent visit to the United States for the 250th anniversary celebrations of the U.S. Navy, an event in which Brazil was represented by a frigate as part of a combined naval operation.
Beyond joint military exercises, Olsen stressed the importance of intelligence sharing and maritime information exchange between the two countries. He said this cooperation helps curb transnational illicit activities in Brazilian jurisdictional waters, in coordination with domestic agencies such as the Federal Police, the Federal Revenue Service, and IBAMA.
When asked whether active military diplomacy could insulate the bilateral relationship from a potential deterioration in government-to-government ties, Olsen acknowledged that political circumstances of friction are transient. "The relationship between military personnel and, particularly, between naval forces, is more robust, it is based more on trust," he stated.
Olsen also addressed the events of January 8, 2023, describing them as a "regrettable occurrence." He noted that the episode and everything that emerged during the judicial process—which has since been sentenced—revealed, on the other hand, an admirable institutional maturity on the part of Brazilian institutions. According to Olsen, the institutions "persevered in their constitutional duties." He stressed the need to guide conduct to "shield the institution from this type of behavior," referring to political involvement within the Armed Forces.
When asked whether politics had been completely removed from the military environment, Olsen was categorical in saying that this could not be affirmed, although he acknowledged progress compared to the situation that culminated in January 8, 2023. "I cannot say that, but there has been progress, if we consider the situation that culminated in January 8, 2023, by the posture of the forces," he stated, adding that much is due to the work of Defense Minister José Múcio to "calm spirits" and realign the Armed Forces.
Olsen also defended a constitutional amendment proposal that would prevent military personnel who leave active duty to run for political office from returning to the ranks. The proposal, introduced at the start of the current legislative term, has not advanced in Congress. The commander made a vigorous defense of the measure, arguing that a military career and electoral political involvement are incompatible.
On the budget front, Olsen stated that defense "suffers from a lack of budgetary adequacy and, particularly, budgetary predictability," which is necessary for long-term contracts. He noted that society's low perception of threat ends up being reflected in the country's decision-making bodies, generating a "rather timid defense mentality." He welcomed the 30 billion reais set aside as an exception to the fiscal framework—distributed as 5 billion reais annually until 2031 for the three Armed Forces—but considered them insufficient.
For the Navy, the main strategic project is the development of a nuclear-powered submarine. The project, initiated in partnership with France in the late 2000s, has had its delivery forecast postponed to 2038, when it was originally scheduled for completion in the mid-2020s. Other military projects have also been affected by the lack of budgetary predictability.
